Mubarak expected to address nation tonight, news reports that he will step down. Seems as though military has forced this move, and is hoping that Suleiman as "civilian" leader can normalize the situation meaning ending strikes and protests.
Hard to believe this will work, as Suleiman is Mubarak/NDP man through and through. Nat Journal's interviewees have a reasonable outlook here. Israelis and Saudis will push hard for Suleiman regime to hang tough, at least until September. Washington will be split between freedom and stability- my money in terms of US power and influence is on the stability crowd prevailing Maybe bifurcated approach with freedom rhetoric from WH but tangible support for stability from across the river.
Thursday, February 10, 2011
Wednesday, February 2, 2011
Taking a Break
I appreciate the nice words from many of you, but the page read statistics are not high enough to justify my time on this with regular frequency. Will continue as practical. Thanks!
Tuesday, February 1, 2011
Inevitable Deterioration Has Begun
Following demonstrations that brought millions of Egyptians to the streets in major cities and Mubarak's late night speech, clashes broke out in Alexandria and Port Said between pro and anti-regime demonstrators. Similar confrontations are reportedly shaping up in Cairo.
Egypt has experienced a miraculous run of peaceful unrest in the past week, with very few injuries despite enormous crowds of civilians, police and soldiers operating in very difficult conditions. This cannot continue for much longer. With this many people, this many agendas, this much uncertainty, this much desperation (over food, essential supplies etc.) and this many weapons, an outbreak of fighting is inevitable. Egypt's peaceful miracle cannot continue forever (it would be unsustainable anywhere, not just Egypt).
Once significant fighting breaks out, the only force able to reimpose order will be the army, and it will be implemented through military force. My previous outlook that the military would not fire on civilians was based on the original peaceful protests demanding Mubarak's ouster and free elections. But of course they will use deadly force to defend themselves and to neutralize dangerous elements on the streets and threatening vital facilities.
Whether this is a conspiracy by pro-regime elements to gain control is beside the point. Because a decisive end to the standoff was apparently tabled when Mubarak refused to step down tonight, a deterioration has become more likely in which thousands of lives could be lost.
Perhaps some other decisive end to the standoff will be contemplated in order to avoid this outcome.
Egypt has experienced a miraculous run of peaceful unrest in the past week, with very few injuries despite enormous crowds of civilians, police and soldiers operating in very difficult conditions. This cannot continue for much longer. With this many people, this many agendas, this much uncertainty, this much desperation (over food, essential supplies etc.) and this many weapons, an outbreak of fighting is inevitable. Egypt's peaceful miracle cannot continue forever (it would be unsustainable anywhere, not just Egypt).
Once significant fighting breaks out, the only force able to reimpose order will be the army, and it will be implemented through military force. My previous outlook that the military would not fire on civilians was based on the original peaceful protests demanding Mubarak's ouster and free elections. But of course they will use deadly force to defend themselves and to neutralize dangerous elements on the streets and threatening vital facilities.
Whether this is a conspiracy by pro-regime elements to gain control is beside the point. Because a decisive end to the standoff was apparently tabled when Mubarak refused to step down tonight, a deterioration has become more likely in which thousands of lives could be lost.
Perhaps some other decisive end to the standoff will be contemplated in order to avoid this outcome.
The Speech
Mubarak announced that he will serve out the remainder of his term which ends in September, but not run for another term. Pledged to amend laws involving term limits and eligibility to run. Swore to die on his land.
Not likely to defuse the situation. Comes several years too late to be received as sincere.
Not likely to defuse the situation. Comes several years too late to be received as sincere.
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