Inevitable Deterioration Has Begun

Following demonstrations that brought millions of Egyptians to the streets in major cities and Mubarak's late night speech, clashes broke out in Alexandria and Port Said between pro and anti-regime demonstrators. Similar confrontations are reportedly shaping up in Cairo.

Egypt has experienced a miraculous run of peaceful unrest in the past week, with very few injuries despite enormous crowds of civilians, police and soldiers operating in very difficult conditions.  This cannot continue for much longer.  With this many people, this many agendas, this much uncertainty, this much desperation (over food, essential supplies etc.) and this many weapons, an outbreak of fighting is inevitable.  Egypt's peaceful miracle cannot continue forever (it would be unsustainable anywhere, not just Egypt). 



Once significant fighting breaks out, the only force able to reimpose order will be the army, and it will be implemented through military force.  My previous outlook that the military would not fire on civilians was based on the original peaceful protests demanding Mubarak's ouster and free elections.  But of course they will use deadly force to defend themselves and to neutralize dangerous elements on the streets and threatening vital facilities. 

Whether this is a conspiracy by pro-regime elements to gain control is beside the point.  Because a decisive end to the standoff was apparently tabled when Mubarak refused to step down tonight, a deterioration has become more likely in which thousands of lives could be lost. 


Perhaps some other decisive end to the standoff will be contemplated in order to avoid this outcome.