Arabs Left OBL for Dead A Long Time Ago

Frankly I'm surprised that OBL didn't die from depression.

Although he was put out of our misery only today, OBL's popularity and policies had largely been dead for many years.  al-Qaida never achieved the mass appeal that would have been required to seriously challenge, let alone overthrow Arab and Muslim governments in favor of Taliban-type rule.  In fact, the Islamic world has chosen a totally different direction.

The rallying cry at all the recent demonstrations throughout the Arab world has been "Peaceful, peaceful" -- not exactly the al-Qaida tagline.  And while the last chapter on the Arab uprisings has not been written, and may take an Islamist turn in some cases, we can state unequivocally that the impetus thus far has been a quest for greater freedom and democracy, with participation by Islamists (some of whom share those objectives) marginal at most.

As all good analyses today are noting, this is not the end of terrorism.  Unfortunately there will be additional terrorist attacks, and there is reason to believe that OBL's death could inspire a symbolic response.

While we should remain vigilant and proactive about interdicting deadly terrorist activity, we can also take some comfort in the fact that OBL's terror recipe was only symbolic - his followers have always been less involved in waging total war against our society than petty murder:

• They never got close to the Saudi royals, who have come to see peaceful rallies in tiny Bahrain as far more threatening than AQ

• The 2006 attack on Saudi's Abqaiq oil facility was a junior varsity effort - as if they hadn't even reviewed similar action movies for ideas

• While the abortive shoe and underwear attacks would have destroyed two more airplanes and killed several hundred people, they didn't threaten American vital interests  

So yes the death of OBL is a hugely important symbolic victory in a dangerous, but not existential, war. But this should not detract from the main issue of the day, which is the outcome of the Arab uprisings against dictatorship and in search of freedom.  Our security and prosperity will be far more affected by the latter than the former.