Oopsie Bear
Folks, I've been intensively studying the Iran/Saudi/Corpus Christi Pothead story since it broke. At the end of the day, we have to believe either that the Quds Force is incompetent, or that the entire USG is even more incompetent. I'm going with A.
Unlike some of the parties in this case, I have done my homework by screening all manner of action/spy movies (in addition to the MA in Middle Eastern studies), and therefore my first instinct was to believe that the operation was designed to make someone look stupid. Because how could you mess all this up by accident? Under that logic, Khamenei was trying to embarrass Ahmadinijad, or vice versa, or purge commanders in the QF, or whatever. But as usual, the reality sets in - these guys aren't half as clever as Soderbergh et al. In the real world, it's probably the face value story because these guys are imbicilles. And that cuts both ways:
Really, legendary and notorious QF commanders? You really undertook the highest-profile attack on the Great Satan's home turf using the following methodology?
- Recruited a fat loser used car dealer druggie as the operational coordinator
- Assumed that even if CS1 (the paid DEA informant) was really a Zeta chieftain, that the Zeta organization would preserve your operational security
- And assumed that the Zetas would do a good job at a Washington bombing
- Discussed the plan over open phone lines
- Transferred large sums via wire that were very likely to be discovered
Cue dream sequence blur and harp crecsendo as we go back in time to the planning sessions:
Arbabsiar: "Guys, I know some people in Mexico involved in the drug trade. Maybe I should ask around and see if any of them also know explosives and also want to murder the Saudi ambassador, at a price yall can afford?"
QF commanders: "Absolutely you should. If it succeeds, then we'll have hit at two enemies in a powerful way. And what's the worst-case scenario if it gets discovered and traced back to Iran? I mean, why wouldn't we do this?"
Here are some of the rejected scripts from the cutting room floor:
QF hooligan 1: "But Shalai, isn't there a possibility that if we deal with third parties that we don't know, they could be unreliable and compromise the mission? Not DEA agents or anything, just unknown people with no alliegence to our cause and stuff."
QF hooligan 2: "Sure that's possible, but why go there?"
QF hooligan 1: "Yep, and I hate to be the glass-half-empty guy on the team, but hear me out on this for ten seconds. Let's say the plot gets discovered and traced back to us, won't it make the QF, the IRGC and the entire IRI up to and including the Supreme Leader look like supreme assholes? Won't it help the Americans and Saudis turn people against us, and won't the guys we work with in Lebanon, Bahrain and Iraq take us less seriously in our day to day QF workflows?"
Later ...
QF stooge 1: "Hey Shahlai, your boy Arbabsiar is calling from Mexico, can you pick up?"
QF stooge 2: "Awesome, I've been waiting for him to call as soon as he got there so I can confirm that he's safe and the plan is still on."
QF stooge 1: "Right but how can you be sure, or even confident, that he hasn't been captured and flipped, or even if he hasn't, that the NSA isn't listening and will see right through the whole Chevrolet code word scheme? Isn't it possible that he's not actually in Mexico? Are you sure you want to discuss the conspiracy over the phone?"
QF stooge 2: "Dude, you are such a dark cloud. You need to get on the bus with this.
Final advice to Quds Force: next recruiting season, try temporarily lifting the IQ ceiling, just for giggles.
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10/11/2011 WASHINGTON – The U.S. Department of the Treasury today announced the designation of five individuals, including four senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Qods Force (IRGC-QF) officers connected to a plot to assassinate the Saudi Arabian Ambassador to the United States Adel Al-Jubeir, while he was in the United States and to carry out follow-on attacks against other countries’ interests inside the United States and in another country. The suspects are:
Manssor Arbabsiar
Abdul Reza Shahlai
Hamed Abdollahi
Ali Gholam Shakur
and senior commander and operational supervisor of the Qods Force,
OOPSIE BEAR
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