The Iran deal seems like a slam dunk for Iran, which will apparently:
* Obtain very significant sanctions relief, at least $7 billion during
the six month period
* Keep its enriched uranium and continue enrichment activity, albeit with
limitations
* Keep its enrichment equipment, albeit with inspections at
declared facilities
* Have no monitoring of its weaponization activities or constraints
on missile development
* Have de facto guarantee of no
Western military threat and removal of associated leverage
Naturally Iran's leadership received the win ecstatically. Israel's leadership may justifiably have required more time to digest all of the details and their ramifications, since the disclosure of the Oman negotiations was withheld from Israel until the outcome was effectively a done deal.
The Iran deal completely abandons the six UN resolutions
that had demanded a cessation of all Iranian uranium enrichment activity, which
required many years of difficult diplomatic achievements and securing the
cooperation of very unwilling participants like Russia and China. Takeaway message: intransigence, defiance and covert progress
will eventually cause the international community to cave.
Washington has essentially purchased a six month “limited limitation”
on Iranian uranium enrichment activities for at least $7 billion. This is money that can be used to advance
Iranian weapons programs, expand its warfighting activity in Syria and further
bolster Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The Administration’s spin alleging that sanctions can easily
be reinstated is dubious. Regardless of
what’s decided in the US Senate, it will be difficult if not impossible to
reinstate the sanctions that have been lifted in this deal. To the contrary, Iran will certainly demand
additional sanctions relief in May and the Administration will probably endorse
that too lest the entire enterprise come to naught.
The biggest problem with the deal is not that Iran will
become a nuclear weapons power in 6 months.
That is very unlikely given what we know about their program, well
outlined by Tony
Cordesman.
As Michael Doran explains, what makes this deal historically significant is America’s
retreat from global and Middle East regional leadership, especially
following the Obama Administration’s acquiescence to Syria’s use of WMD earlier
this year. Now we know that Obama was
deeply involved in the Oman negotiations during and even before Assad’s nerve gas attack. Obama’s decision to stay on the sidelines was
no doubt influenced by these negotiations.
In other words, his irrational exuberance for a six month enrichment
limitation deal enabled Assad to get away with mass murder, and clearly
telegraphed the reality that the US is no longer the global enforcer.
The historical era of America’s challenge to global tyranny, already being unwound in the pullbacks from Iraq and Afghanistan, was
finally lowered into the ground and buried along with the murdered children of East
Ghouta (suburb of Damascus in gas weapon attack).
The revised Mideast forecast:
partly to mostly violent. Saudi
and other Gulf nations will double down on proxy fight against Iran and
Hezbollah. Natural byproduct will be
gains for al-Qaida linked groups. Israel
will continue attacking targets in Syria and likely expand operations into
Lebanon. Iran and Assad will capitalize
on leverage with expanded combat operations in Syria in attempt to roll back
rebel gains. Saudi will waste no time in
at least catching up to if not surpassing Iran’s nuclear capability; Egypt will
move to active planning.