Mideast Forecast after Iran Deal: Partly to Mostly Violent

The Iran deal seems like a slam dunk for Iran, which will apparently:

*  Obtain very significant sanctions relief, at least $7 billion during the six month period

*  Keep its enriched uranium and continue enrichment activity, albeit with limitations

*  Keep its enrichment equipment, albeit with inspections at declared facilities

*  Have no monitoring of its weaponization activities or constraints on missile development

*  Have de facto guarantee of no Western military threat and removal of associated leverage 

Naturally Iran's leadership received the win ecstatically.  Israel's leadership may justifiably have required more time to digest all of the details and their ramifications, since the disclosure of the Oman negotiations was withheld from Israel until the outcome was effectively a done deal.

The Iran deal completely abandons the six UN resolutions that had demanded a cessation of all Iranian uranium enrichment activity, which required many years of difficult diplomatic achievements and securing the cooperation of very unwilling participants like Russia and China.  Takeaway message:  intransigence, defiance and covert progress will eventually cause the international community to cave.

Washington has essentially purchased a six month “limited limitation” on Iranian uranium enrichment activities for at least $7 billion.  This is money that can be used to advance Iranian weapons programs, expand its warfighting activity in Syria and further bolster Hezbollah in Lebanon. 

The Administration’s spin alleging that sanctions can easily be reinstated is dubious.  Regardless of what’s decided in the US Senate, it will be difficult if not impossible to reinstate the sanctions that have been lifted in this deal.  To the contrary, Iran will certainly demand additional sanctions relief in May and the Administration will probably endorse that too lest the entire enterprise come to naught.

The biggest problem with the deal is not that Iran will become a nuclear weapons power in 6 months.  That is very unlikely given what we know about their program, well outlined by Tony Cordesman.

As Michael Doran explains, what makes this deal historically significant is America’s retreat from global and Middle East regional leadership, especially following the Obama Administration’s acquiescence to Syria’s use of WMD earlier this year.  Now we know that Obama was deeply involved in the Oman negotiations during and even before Assad’s nerve gas attack.  Obama’s decision to stay on the sidelines was no doubt influenced by these negotiations.  In other words, his irrational exuberance for a six month enrichment limitation deal enabled Assad to get away with mass murder, and clearly telegraphed the reality that the US is no longer the global enforcer. 

The historical era of America’s challenge to global tyranny, already being unwound in the pullbacks from Iraq and Afghanistan, was finally lowered into the ground and buried along with the murdered children of East Ghouta (suburb of Damascus in gas weapon attack). 

The revised Mideast forecast:  partly to mostly violent.  Saudi and other Gulf nations will double down on proxy fight against Iran and Hezbollah.  Natural byproduct will be gains for al-Qaida linked groups.  Israel will continue attacking targets in Syria and likely expand operations into Lebanon.  Iran and Assad will capitalize on leverage with expanded combat operations in Syria in attempt to roll back rebel gains.  Saudi will waste no time in at least catching up to if not surpassing Iran’s nuclear capability; Egypt will move to active planning.