I guess the question I want to know is the "Is the Arab world ready for democracy question?" Right or wrong, Israel and the U.S. supported Muburak because he could keep the peace in a very fractured part of the world, albeit by force. He managed incredible peace deals with Israel and managed to regain the trust of their neighbors as well.
It seems recently when Middle Eastern countries / territories are suddenly given the right to vote, they often choose extremists / theocrats as their leaders (see Gaza, and maybe Lebanon if I have my facts straight). Many Muslim nations have huge young populations (50-70% sometimes) who are very pro-democratic, but politics is messy and there are many sophisticated + corrupt people who can maneuver their way in and steal the show from these idealists...
Great question and points, Jon. Yeah who can say definitively whether a society is "ready" for democracy. If I told you that a certain society was not ready for women and blacks to vote alongside white men, you'd probably say no, yada yada. I agree that the prospect of bad guys coming in later and hijacking/morphing the Egyptian upheaval into something terrible is very possible and worrisome. I suggest that one thing we as observers have to come to grips with is the limits of our power to influence certain events. Back in the day we were heavily involved in determining the fate of other nations and their governing systems, but that wasn't with an all-volunteer military, if you get my drift. We're barely able to execute on both Iraq and Afghanistan and the jury is still out on both outcomes with all the resources we've poured in. Sorry I've left us with more Qs than As here; hopefully food for thought.
I guess the question I want to know is the "Is the Arab world ready for democracy question?" Right or wrong, Israel and the U.S. supported Muburak because he could keep the peace in a very fractured part of the world, albeit by force. He managed incredible peace deals with Israel and managed to regain the trust of their neighbors as well.
ReplyDeleteIt seems recently when Middle Eastern countries / territories are suddenly given the right to vote, they often choose extremists / theocrats as their leaders (see Gaza, and maybe Lebanon if I have my facts straight). Many Muslim nations have huge young populations (50-70% sometimes) who are very pro-democratic, but politics is messy and there are many sophisticated + corrupt people who can maneuver their way in and steal the show from these idealists...
Great question and points, Jon. Yeah who can say definitively whether a society is "ready" for democracy. If I told you that a certain society was not ready for women and blacks to vote alongside white men, you'd probably say no, yada yada. I agree that the prospect of bad guys coming in later and hijacking/morphing the Egyptian upheaval into something terrible is very possible and worrisome. I suggest that one thing we as observers have to come to grips with is the limits of our power to influence certain events. Back in the day we were heavily involved in determining the fate of other nations and their governing systems, but that wasn't with an all-volunteer military, if you get my drift. We're barely able to execute on both Iraq and Afghanistan and the jury is still out on both outcomes with all the resources we've poured in. Sorry I've left us with more Qs than As here; hopefully food for thought.
ReplyDeleteThanks, Clay, for trying....
ReplyDelete