Monday, January 31, 2011

Tipping Point?

Egyptian army has issued a statement saying it will not use force against protesters, in line with the prediction in my first post.

To be clear, I'm not buying a plane ticket to go visit on this basis.  The outcome will remain unknown for a long time to come, and there is still a huge potential for a bloodbath.  To reiterate, it's possible that some military forces will splinter from the main group and follow other orders.  Or that the entire military could later turn hostile toward civilians as developments unfold.  But for the time being, the army seems to be making official what we've inferred from its behavior since day one of its deployment in the cities (last Friday), which is that it's not going to massacre its own people.  Cairo just ain't Hama.

2 comments:

  1. I think the role a military plays in keeping a county stable, and encouraging or dispelling revolutions is something most people (including me) know just about nothing about....

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