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From the Israeli perspective, the next skirmish with Iran via Hezbollah is not just imminent - it's ongoing. Thus Israel has (first in January and now in May) been preemptively attacking the
enemy’s supply chain in Syria, before the weapons reach Lebanon. This was also the case with ships at sea and factories in far-off Sudan.
It's true that the late-model Fatah 110 would offer Hez game-changing firepower:
- Solid-fuel propellant means rapid launch preparation, less likely to be detected in advance
- Road-mobile launchers (mounted on trucks) can more easily avoid detection and evade attackers
- Relatively long range (by Israel-Hezbollah battlefield standards - 300 km) puts most of Israel's sensitive facilities in range even from deep within Lebanon
- Precision guidance (100 meter margin of error) and heavy warhead (up to 1,100 pounds) mean that specific Israeli targets could be destroyed.
This last element is perhaps the biggest factor that has changed since the classic Arab-Israeli wars were fought in previous decades. In a world with Google Earth and similar mapping/imagery software platforms, there are no more secrets regarding the location of fixed targets in any country: runway intersections, missile bunkers, armories, motor pools and command posts. Today these are all visible in granular detail - even with precise latitude/longitude coordinates - from any computer in the world. Suitable granularity is even available on cell phones and other mobile devices. This combination of precision guided munitions and targeting knowledge in Iranian proxy hands is new, thus the threshold for constituting game-changing firepower that can alter the balance of power is redefined. Although yes it doesn't hurt that the Syrian armed forces are diminished and stretched, and Israel's decision might have been different 3+ years ago.
Sidebar: Recognizing that Google and others have already permanently revealed Israel's top secrets to the whole world, Israel has apparently picked a more limited fight with the software giant - how to label Palestine on its world map.
Therefore from Israel's view, even though the missiles had not yet set out for Lebanon, why pass up the opportunity to hit them in the airport warehouse? Why wait
until the missiles are delivered and hidden away in forests, urban areas or secret tunnels when they can be
neutralized now at low risk?
Intentional or Not, Geopolitical Signals are Sent
Best assessment is that damage to Syrian Republican Guard units on Mount Qassiyoun was incidental, not intended. To the contrary, Israel has been putting out word that it is neutral in the Syrian civil war and not out to hit the Assad regime. Nevertheless, Washington and the rest of the international community are left with some clear take away messages from the Israeli strikes in the Damascus area that also apparently hit regime security forces:
To the all-talk Assad opponents: you guys are sissies. Sure an all-out crushing of Syria's air defenses would be a formidable task, but you should be ashamed for not trying harder.
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To Tehran and everyone else watching: Israel has the
technical means and the resolve to overcome obstacles in order to destroy important
enemy targets. We can sustain operations like this around the
clock for months. We now have a solid track record of action when our red lines get crossed. Cross the next one at your own risk.
To Assad, Iran and Hezbollah: crazy coincidence that those Republican Guards (vital to regime survival) got caught up in all this. If you were depending on those guys and similar units to protect a retreat to the northwestern coastal enclave, better rethink - they're questionable for game day.
Meanwhile, not all the geopolitical signals come from the tip of the sword - some come from the tip of the fountain pen. One big impediment to international intervention in Syria has been the schism between Israel and Turkey. Syria and Iran have benefited from the split, but this chapter may be drawing to an end with the expected signing of a deal for Israel to compensate Turkey for damages from the Mavi Marmara episode. They say that a picture's worth a thousand words , and this one has been prominently featured in Ankara for a couple of months now.
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