Syria: What You Need to Know

Friends are increasingly asking me how to interpret the latest developments in the Syrian civil war.  I think one of the best explanations comes from Toby Matthisen, who calls it "a war about the future of the Middle East."  Matthisen tells the story of how Sayyida Zainab, a Shia shrine southeast of Damascus, became a magnet for non-Syrian Shia in recent decades, and also today as Shia fighters have come to defend the Assad regime.  Although the face-value story is religious in nature, the real story is geopolitical, specifically the expansion of Iranian influence into Baathist (secular) Syria.  The key events in the ensuing years following the Iranian Revolution are seen through this lens, from the end of the Iran-Iraq war to the creation of Hezbollah to the 1991 Iraqi Shia uprising.  But Matthisen sees beyond the sectarian story to focus on the real motivation of the parties in Syria today:

It might be tempting to view Shia fighters traveling to a foreign country to defend a religious shrine as the final realization of an age-old battle that started with the schism of Islam after the death of the Prophet Muhammad. Such a simplistic reading is, however, deeply misleading. Sayyida Zainab—a shrine whose status as a site of Shia religious pilgrimage was largely created in the 1980s and 1990s—lies at the heart of a strategic relationship between the Assad regime, Iran, and Arab Shia groups. This relationship uses religious symbols and sectarian language but it is driven far more by geo-strategic interests than faith. The various groups that profit from a further sectarianization of the conflict, this time on the Shia side, are to blame. These include Iran, which is trying to re-establish its influence over all Shia political movements and groups, whether in the Gulf, in Iraq or elsewhere. 

Veteran Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi suggests that an Iranian win in Syria would directly undermine Saudi Arabia national security mainly because it would increase anger and political extremism at home.  For this reason, he predicts, Saudi Arabia will not allow an Iranian victory in which the Assad regime remains in power.  According to Khashoggi, "Iran’s presence in Lebanon and Syria now constitutes a clear threat to Saudi Arabia’s national security, and Turkey’s as well."

It will be good if the United States joined an alliance led by Saudi Arabia to bring down Assad and return Syria to the Arab fold. But this should not be a precondition to proceed.  Let Saudi Arabia head those on board.  Let us put aside any misgivings about sequels of the Arab Spring, the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood and Turkey’s ambitions.  Let the objective be to bring down Assad fast.  The objective is bound to draw together multiple forces ranging from the Anbar tribes to Hamas to Egypt’s Brothers to Tunisia to the Gulf Countries.  That would entice Turkey to partake in the alliance. France could follow. And whether the United States does or does not breeze in is inconsequential. After all, it’s our battle and our security. U.S. security is not on the line.